If you recall from our previous weeks analysis, we did mention that if we were to continue the bullish trend, we Must move up this week. And that is exactly what happened. Since the two lines are narrowing down, the risk is getting bigger. Moreover, this year’s budget also will have a big impact on how the indices reacts, at lest in the short term. In the event we break down, 8900 will be the next major support level. In the event we break out(which is highly unlikely, but possible) we could easily see 10800/11K in a few weeks time frame.
Technically, it may not be a good time to go long. If you look carefully, MACD is just hovering in a straight line macd indicator. And is definitely not trending, most of February. This coincides with the way Indice is moving. After touching 10k earlier this month, we have barely moved. A calm before the storm. Now, whether this calm brings happy news or a sad one, only time will tell. Technically, a correction is Definitely on the cards, as MACD has virtually peaked out and RSI is weakening.
Every-time we are trying to make new highs, there seems to be some sort of resistance on the cards that pulls all good efforts, down. With Oil, now more or less out of the focus, as it is once again trading at much lower price that the recent time highs, market is now looking for reasons to move ahead. Market always looks for news and views to support it’s movements, up or down.
Technically, Dow is correcting and testing it’s previous breakout levels around 10950/11K. As long as we hold onto this level, we are still extremely bullish. If in fact we do break this level and go down, we could retest the lower trendline(from chart below) which stands around 10700(as of this writing).
Budget ignited the markets. With the best known Finance personnel in the whole of Asia, this did not really come as a surprise. But market’s reaction was a bit overboard.
Technically, we “finally” have a breakout as you can clearly see from the chart below. This is the very first time that we actually broke past the upper trendline. And this happened on a great volume and with a huge surge. Another good thing about this breakout is, the next couple of days(post breakout) we have been getting good support from the same resistance line that now serves as a support line. But again, as you can see, MACD is extremely over-stretched and so are the other indicators.
Markets have been consolidating after breaking the 11K barrier, once again. The good thing about the way things are moving is that we have held onto Both 11K(dow) and 2300(Nasdaq). Though both indices did dip below these levels a few times last week, both sustained the wrath and came back up.
Technically, 11K and 2300 are giving extremely good support. As long as we can hold onto these levels, we still have good reasons to be bullish and going long. In the meanwhile, we have MACD negative divergence. Last time we had this around early Jan, we dipped for a few more sessions before rallying back up. We could have a similar scenario this time too. As you can see from the trenlines below, we are pretty much on track, both up and downside.